BASIC · HYPERLINE
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Journey Price (JP): a Journey-derived composite per ingredient, in USD per metric ton (eggs: USD per dozen). Inputs (USDA AMS MyMarketNews cash reports, European Commission EU Agri-food Data Portal, IMF Primary Commodity Prices via FRED, delayed exchange futures) are converted with dated FRED DEXUSEU FX, basis-adjusted to the cash/ingredient-level anchor by a rolling 365-day median ratio, weighted by source reliability x freshness (half-life 3d daily, 10d weekly, 45d monthly) x inverse recent volatility, MAD-filtered for outliers and smoothed with a short EMA. Input values are not republished; only source names are listed. confidence (0-100) reflects freshness, input agreement and inputs used. Forecasts are fit on the monthly JP and published only where a rolling-origin backtest beats naive; P10/P90 bands are empirical. Not investment advice.
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